OBAMARAMA

Most Democratic primary states split their delegates, including California. Even so, the “winner” of Super Duper Tuesday is bound to be the one who walks home with California, at least in the eyes of a media looking to name a victor.

Which makes this especially exciting news:

A new poll out Sunday suggests Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat for the biggest prize on Super Tuesday: delegate-rich California.

According to a just released poll from the Field Research Corporation, Clinton only holds a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Obama in California, 36 percent to 34 percent. Meanwhile the poll shows 18 percent of California Democrats have yet to make up their minds.

The poll suggests the race has significantly narrowed in the state in only a matter weeks– most polls two weeks ago showed Clinton with a double-digit lead there. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll taken a week ago showed Clinton with a 17 point lead there.

Polls closed at 7pm, and at 7:01 every network called the South Carolina primary for Sen. Obama. With 51% reporting, he has twice as many votes as Sen. Clinton, and 7 pledged delegates to her 1.

More impressive is the exit poll information, which shows him winning handily in nearly every demographic: Men, Women, African Americans, every age cohort between 18 and 64, White voters age 18-29, and churchgoers.

What’s more, of voters who said that former President Bill Clinton’s campaigning played an important role in their decision, most by far voted for Sen. Obama. Looks like sending a former head of state into the muck of disingenuous politicking has its price.

Anyone think we’ll be seeing less of the Pit Bill in the weeks ahead? Judging from these polls, I’m inclined to hope not.

UPDATE: The video:

The Political Wire reports on new polling out of the Palmetto State:

The Associated Press reports today on a poll that asked Americans which presidential candidate “they would most like to chat with at a Memorial Day picnic.”

No surprises here:

Notably, the article also points out that “more women overall chose Obama over Clinton.”

Leading the nation is no picnic, of course. But in a society where voters want to like their leaders on a personal level, results like this are exactly what you want to see.

An AP article out today compares the diversity among the top staffers of the leading presidential candidates. Not surprisingly, the Republicans don’t fare so well:

According to the article, “The Obama campaign counts six minority staffers among its top 14 staff members, and six women within the same group.” It goes on to quote spokesman Bill Burton, who says that a diverse staff “helps to get a fuller sense of opinions and perspectives and ideas from a broad spectrum of individuals.”

And a new FOX News poll bears the headline “More Voters Believe Giuliani, McCain and Obama Say What They Believe,” noting that “46 percent think Obama says what he truly believes,” the largest percentage of any Democrat.

One of the most diverse campaigns AND the most honest? Not bad for a guy no one had heard of six months ago.

Every time I hear the name “Frank Luntz,” I throw up in my mouth a little.

This is the man, after all, who made the Republicans understand that they could win policy debates simply by having the better message, regardless of how flawed their policies were. He coined phrases like “Death Tax,” “energy exploration” and “healthy forests,” to replace the unimaginative (if more precise) terms “Estate Tax,” “drilling” and “logging.” As Samantha Bee once put it, “Luntz has made a brilliant career spraying perfume on dog turds.”

In fairness, I don’t have such a visceral, intestinal reaction to Frank Luntz because he’s an idiot. To the contrary, the guy has been brutally successful, having reportedly once even sold a ketchup popsicle to an Eskimo wearing white gloves.

While we should lament the absence of substance in our debates, Luntz has helped political folks on both sides learn to appreciate the vital role communication plays in the process. Despite his sometimes questionable methodologies, Luntz understands better than anyone that you need to sell your ideas if you want them to be adopted.

So when he goes on Bill Maher and says Sen. Obama is well-positioned to win both the primary and the general election, I take heed. I still get a little nauseous, but it’s a nausea of joy. Have a look:

In a blog post today, USA Today asks, is “Obama No. 1?“

Barack Obama has risen past Hillary Clinton in a new automated poll of likely Democratic voters. The Rasmussen poll  has the Illinois senator at 32% and Clinton at 30%. John Edwards is steady at 17%.

From today’s Newsweek, this insight:

NPR reported this morning that Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama were pointedly nice to each other — but the other candidates had no doubt about who was in their sights. To each, Sen. Obama is the biggest obstacle on the path to 1600 Pennsylvania.

It’s flattering. And doubly so given the fact that a SurveyUSA poll of South Carolina debate watchers named Sen. Obama the winner, with 31 percent saying he came out on top.

The Political Wire has a good rundown of other reactions, including David Broder’s observation that “the Democrats have a field of contenders that, by any historical measure, matches in quality any the party has offered in decades.”

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Sen. Obama closing the gap with Sen. Clinton.  According to the report, the data “suggests doubts about his electability are diminishing.”

In particular:

You can see the complete poll data here — which includes 56 percent public support for the Democratic Congress’s decision to set a deadline for withdrawal from Iraq, as opposed to 37 percent support for President Bush’s insistence against it.

I don’t want to make too much of this, as it’s just one installment of a weekly tracking poll with a relatively high margin of error, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that the latest Rasmussen poll has Sen. Obama tied with Sen. Clinton at 32 percent support apiece.

From Rasmussen:

For the fourth straight week, Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) has gained ground and he has finally caught New York Senator Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. It’s now Obama 32% Clinton 32% and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards holding steady at 17%.

Obama has been steadily gaining ground during April. Last week, Clinton had a two-point lead. Two weeks ago, it was Clinton by five. The week before that, the former First Lady was up by seven. Our last release in March found Clinton enjoying a double digit lead. Clinton now holds a narrow edge among white voters while Obama leads by 16% among African-Americans.

Perhaps most significant in this data, though, is another figure — that of core support. According to the pollsters, “A separate survey showed that Obama has the highest level of core support among all Presidential candidates—33% of voters say they’d definitely vote for him if he’s on the ballot in November 2008.” Great numbers, as we’ve noted here.

More good news from the world of public opinion polling. Sen. Obama reportedly holds a substantial seven point lead among younger Democratic voters (ages 18-24) and is picking up steam in general, with more voters saying they would “definitely vote for” him than any other candidate.

According to The Hill, a “Harvard survey, which was conducted online with nearly 3,000 18- to 24-year-olds participating,” found that “Obama leads with 35 percent among 18- to 24-year-old voters who likely will vote Democratic in 2008, followed by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) at 28 percent and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) at 9 percent.”

And for those haters who like to say that young people don’t vote, they offer this little statistical nugget:

The youth vote, often a source of frustration to those who seek to increase turnout among young people, is shaping up to be a key demographic, with its size and participation levels on the upswing.

…Turnout among 18- to 24-year-olds grew by nearly one-third between 2000 and 2004, from 36 percent to 47 percent. And 2006 saw significant youth-vote gains for a midterm election as well.

The high point of the last 30 years came in 1992, when 48.6 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds and 52 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds voted. Those numbers appear to be within reach for the 2008 cycle.

As for the rest of us old fogies, Rasmussen has released its latest “Vote for or Against” numbers, with Sen. Obama faring the best by far. From their report:

Thirty-three percent (33%) of Likely Voters say they’d definitely vote for Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D). That’s the highest total received by any of ten leading Presidential hopefuls included in the poll. Thirty-three percent (33%) also say they’d definitely vote against Obama giving him a net differential of zero (33% definitely for minus 33% definitely against equals net differential of 0). All other candidates have a net differential in negative territory meaning more people are set to definitely vote against them rather than for them. Other polling during the past month found Obama’s favorability ratings have increased to the highest level of any 2008 candidate.

A month ago, Obama had a net differential of minus 9 (28% definitely for, 37% definitely against).

(Hat tip to reader Carrie S. For the Rasmussen info.)

A new ABC/Washington Post poll out reveals an easily overlooked but very significant statistic among voters who identify as “independent” politically. Previously stalwart supporters of Sen. John McCain, their affiliations are beginning to shift.

As reported by Hotline On Call:

The poll finds that the percentage of those surveyed who would definitely not support Sen. John McCain has nearly doubled and is nearly a majority — 47%. He’s become as polarizing as Hillary Clinton, at least to partisans. But only 41% of independents say they would definitely not support him.

Among independents — Definitely would NOT support
Romney: 53%
Clinton: 51
McCain: 41
Edwards: 39
Giuliani: 35
Obama: 29

Though it receives little attention, this is one list where it pays to come in last. Remember all the fawning media attention over “swing voters” in 2004? Remember John Kerry’s hunting trip? There’s a reason for all that hubbub, and here it is in four words: Independent voters decide elections.

It’s why everyone feels the need to suck up to them in the run-up to Election Day, often with unfortunate, if entertaining, results. At this point, having permanently alienated the fewest of them is a little-appreciated (but tremendously important) asset.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll out today shows Sen. Obama honing in on frontrunner status in the Democratic primary. According to the report, “newcomer Barack Obama has closed to within 5 points of Hillary Clinton.”

(Thanks to Stacy for the tip.)

A new TIME Magazine poll has some significant news for the Democratic presidential candidates, including that, “while a vast majority of voters (65%) think the Democrats will probably win the 2008 presidential election,” in head-to-head match-ups with actual Republicans only one Democrat consistently comes out on top.

Guess who?

This finding is borne out at an interesting website, Pollster.com, which synthesizes major polls and produces a graphic depiction of the candidates’ viability that incorporates all the results.

According to their analysis, Sen. Obama is within less than a percentage point of Giuliani, bests Sen. McCain by 2 points, and smacks Mitt Romney around harder than any other Democrat. In contrast, both Sen. Clinton and John Edwards lose to both Giuliani (by at least 3.4 points) and McCain in the match-ups.

As TIME notes, “these match-ups may say more about Clinton’s weakness as a general election candidate than they do about the Democratic field.” I know it’s early to put much stock in polling — but it’s never too early to think about your best bet in the general election.

That’s the great thing about Sen. Obama’s candidacy: you can vote your conscience AND be practical at the same time. Shocking, I know. Refusing to compromise your principles is actually the pragmatic thing to do?

It’s a phenomenon that any uninspired Gore voter who liked what Nader was saying can appreciate — the chance to vote your ideals without wondering if you’re throwing away your vote. Or as a poster at DraftObama aptly dubs the concept, “The Practicality of Hope.”

(Hat tip to reader BVH for the Pollster info.)

An email from MoveOn.org reports that an online vote shows that “Barack Obama is MoveOn members’ top choice to lead the country out of Iraq.” This vote followed a virtual town hall meeting where the candidates discussed their views on handling the war.

Given that Sen. Obama has staked out a rational position on the war — looking to wrap it up responsibly and quickly, but not in a way that could leave the region unstable and a potential haven for terrorists — a vote of confidence from a progressive community like MoveOn is encouraging.

UPDATE: Here are Sen. Obama’s closing remarks from the MoveOn forum: