OBAMARAMA

Rasmussen is reporting its latest finding that former senator, Law & Order star and likely Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson is “essentially tied with the Democratic frontrunner, Senator Hillary Clinton. It’s Thompson 44% Clinton 43%.”

Matched up against Sen. Obama, though, Thompson doesn’t fare quite so well:

The latest Rasmussen poll has good news for Sen. Obama:

The race for the Democratic Presidential nomination is getting a bit tighter. Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) has closed to within five points of the frontrunner—Senator Hillary Clinton. A week ago, Clinton held a 12-point lead.

The former First Lady now attracts 35% of the vote down slightly from 38% last week. Obama gained four points and now is the top choice for 30% of Likely Voters. That’s the highest level of support for Obama in any Rasmussen Reports survey since the Election 2008 season began.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer is reporting on a Quinnipiac poll showing that Sen. Obama’s support in Ohio has increased from 13 percent in January to 22 percent now. In contrast, Sen. Clinton’s support has dipped from 38 percent down to 32 percent.

As the article notes:

There’s good news for Barack Obama’s presidential candidacy: The senator from Illinois is getting more popular in Ohio, while Democratic rival Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York is holding steady at best.

…”The Democrats generally seem to be doing somewhat better in Ohio than in some other historical swing states,” Quinniiac’s Peter Brown says in a statement. “Although it is 20 months until Election Day, the Republicans may want to determine why. This poll is especially good news for Sen. Obama as some Democrats seem to be looking for someone other than Sen. Clinton.”

A new TIME poll that has Sen. Obama narrowing the gap with Sen. Clinton to a mere seven points has several even more exciting statistics just below the surface, as the New York Post reports today:

The Time poll reveals southerners scrambling away from Clinton. She now leads Obama in the region by just 4 points — down from a whopping 23-point edge in the South last month.

While Clinton and Obama remained deadlocked among blacks, she holds a 7-point lead among whites and a 25-point advantage with evangelical Christians.

The poll of Democrats and left-leaning independents showed Clinton wielding a 9-point edge (31 percent to 22 percent) among registered Democrats but trailing Obama among independents, 27 percent to 25 percent.

The news is even better in the head-to-head matchups with Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani, where Sen. Obama once again wins the day:

And in head-to-head match-ups, Obama edges GOP front-runner Rudy Giuliani (44 percent to 43 percent) while Clinton loses to him (47 percent to 43 percent).

Rasmussen reports that Sen. Obama is closing the gap with Sen. Clinton, who now leads him by 8 points — 34% to 26%. This is a 3 point improvement for Sen. Obama just since last week.

Interestingly, according to the poll, “Obama edges Clinton 28% to 26% among male voters while the former First Lady enjoys a 14-point advantage among women.”

John Zogby’s latest national poll shows Sen. Obama making strong gains in his support for the Democratic nomination, increasing 11 points since the last survey and trailing Sen. Clinton by only 8 points. Even more striking is how he fares when matched up against the Republican front-runners — and the major strides he has apparently made among African Americans.

According to Zogby, “New York Sen. Hillary Clinton clings to a shrinking lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama in a national test of Democratic primary voter preference.” Zogby continues:

Among those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus for President, Clinton leads with 33% support, up 4% from our last telephone survey in early January. However, Obama has made dramatic gains in the last six weeks, moving from 14% support to 25% backing. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edward is a distant third, winning 12% support. One in five said they were undecided about which Democratic candidate to support.

Also of interest is this statistic from the demographic breakdown:

Clinton holds a 31% to 24% edge among white Democratic voters, while Obama leads among African–Americans, 36% to 27%. [Emphasis added]

We’ve discussed here before the likely shift of support among African Americans to Sen. Obama — though this is definitely an earlier-than-expected indication of that shift.

(Read more after the jump…)

Joel Benenson, a pollster who ran the 1996 Clinton-Gore campaign’s polling operation and worked on 10 Democratic House races in 2006 (eight of which were successful — and three of which unseated Republican incumbents), has joined the Obama campaign, according to TPMCafe’s Greg Sargent.

In addition to being a valuable asset, the Benenson pickup holds another kind of significance: he’s a former Clinton associate who has extensive experience in New York political circles. As Sargent notes:

The New York-based Benenson has also worked in New York gubernatorial and mayoral politics. He polled for former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, and in the 2005 mayoral race, he was pollster for Dem Congressman and mayoral hopeful Anthony Weiner, a long-shot candidate who surprised New York politicos by coming in a solid second place and almost forcing a runoff against eventual Dem nominee Fernando Ferrer. The campaign is set to announce Benenson’s hiring today.

Sargent underscores how much the campaign wanted Benenson involved, quoting a source who said “He’s one of the best out there. We absolutely wanted to have him on board.” Judging from this December 2006 Newsweek article, the feeling is mutual:

The electoral map might not be as daunting for Obama as it appears. Democratic pollster Joel Benenson points out that an African-American candidate on the ticket might make states like Virginia and North Carolina competitive for Democrats. Even Republican strategists concede that those who would vote against Obama purely on race are unlikely to vote Democratic anyway.

Benenson will reportedly be running Sen. Obama’s New Hampshire polling operation.

Sen. Obama is running the table in the early caucus and primary states, tied for first in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

In a Concord Monitor poll, Sen. Obama received 21% support in New Hampshire. Sen. Hillary Clinton — who was trouncing Sen. Obama by a whopping 23 percentage points just one month ago — received 22%. John Edwards received 16%.

A Research 2000 poll of Iowa caucusers shows Sen. Obama and Edwards tied at 22%, with Sen. Clinton receiving 10% support.

Additionally, Sen. Obama edged out prominent Republicans Gov. Mitt Romney, Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani in head-to-head match-ups in Iowa:

If Obama were running in 2008 against Romney, 43 percent said they would pick Obama and 28 percent they would choose Romney. … Obama would lead McCain with 42 percent of respondents’ approval versus 39 percent. … If the race were between Obama and Giuliani, 43 percent of respondents said they would pick Obama and 38 percent said they would pick Giuliani.